SEPTEMBER INFLATION REPORT
Summary: Headline Disinflation Strengthens, but Underlying Price Pressures Persist Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated to 14.63% y/y in September from 15.39% in August, extending the disinflation trend. However, the more significant movement was the sharp slowdown in monthly inflation to 0.06% from 0.71%. While this points to a substantial easing in the pace of price increases, […]
NIGERIA’S SEPTEMBER PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose again to 53.0 points from 52.7 in August showing more strength in Nigeria’s private-sector activity. The improvement was broad-based across the three major sectors (Industry, Services and Agriculture and are above the 50-point threshold). Out of 32 subsectors surveyed by the CBN, 23 recorded expansions, pointing to a […]
SEPTEMBER MPR RESET: CBN BRINGS RATE TO 23%
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 350bps, from 26.50% to 23.00%, brings the policy rate closer to where short-term market rates have already been trading across Treasury bills, OMO bills and other money-market instruments. In our understanding, the CBN’s motive is to reduce the gap between the policy […]
AUGUST INFLATION REPORT
The August CPI numbers released by NBS shows that headline inflation moderated marginally to 15.39% y/y in August, from 15.43% in July. While the 4bps decline in the annual rate was modest, the more significant development was the sharp moderation in MoM inflation, which slowed to 0.71% from 1.57%. This indicates a meaningful easing in […]
Nigeria’s August PMI:Private Sector Recovery Gains Momentum, but Industry Still Lags
Summary Nigeria’s recovery is starting to look more credible, but until we see a clear uptick in industrial demand, the economy still hasn’t managed to transform macroeconomic stabilization into a broad-based cycle of stronger corporate earnings and improved living standards for the man on the street. Where We’re Coming From Nigeria’s private-sector activity strengthened further […]
Nigeria’s July PMI: Demand Recovers, but Industry Remains the Missing Link
Summary: Nigeria’s private-sector activity strengthened in July, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 51.1 from 50.1 in June, marking a second consecutive month of expansion. More importantly, the improvement was underpinned by stronger demand, as New Orders rose to 50.8 from 49.0 and Output increased to 51.8 from 50.5. The recovery, however, […]
Looking Beyond the War
Discussion Point: Wars create short-term uncertainty and volatility, but history shows that the real investment opportunity lies in the policy response particularly how energy shocks force structural reforms, infrastructure spending, and sector rotation. War always dominates the headlines. It shapes global policy and forces volatility into every chart we watch. But if you’ve spent enough […]
The World Is Rethinking Where Trust Sits
Discussion Point: Nigeria does not need to mine copper for copper to matter; it only needs to execute the infrastructurecycle copper is signaling. For decades, the US dollar has anchored the global financial system, not because it is perfect, but because it isliquid, trusted, and supported by deep capital markets. That role is not collapsing, […]
Nigeria’s $4.6bn Balance of Payments Surplus: Why the Headline Is Not the Full Story
Discussion Point: Nigeria’s $4.6bn balance-of-payments surplus eases short-term FX pressure, but persistent services and income outflows show that external stability remains fragile rather than structural. Nigeria’s return to a $4.6bn balance-of-payments (BOP) surplus in Q3 2025 is a welcome development. According to the recent Central Bank of Nigeria press release, the surplus was supported by […]
FG Begins ₦4tr GenCos Debt Repayment: What the Bond Programme Means for the Power Sector
Discussion Point: Structural Liquidity Fix: The Federal Government is engineering a structural fix to the power sector’s chronic N4tn debt burden, converting old, doubtful obligations into clean, government-guaranteed tradeable instruments via the N590bn first tranche bond issuance. After years of mounting arrears that strained power generation and gas supply, the Federal Government has begun addressing […]