Weekly Market Report: Sep 29th – Oct 3rd, 2025

SpringHill Capital

October 6, 2025

The market opened quietly ahead of the scheduled FGN bond auction. The sale cleared with marginal rates on the reopened 2030s and 2032s down 195 bps and 180 bps from the previous auction respectively, as aggressive bidding (bid-to-cover ratio: 6.5x)   sparked a bullish move across the curve. Treasury and OMO bills followed, with the new-issue 364-day bill down 80 bps and the 17-Feb OMO lower from the week’s open. A late-week CBN OMO auction attracted strong demand, leading to a slight market pullback to end the week. System liquidity remained positive, closing at ₦5.8 trillion

The ASI gained 1.02 % to close at 143,584.04 , maintaining its bullish momentum. Oil & Gas at 5.68 % and Industrial Goods at 1.66 % led advances as energy sentiment was sustained by interest in Aradel after Capital Alliance’s divestment. Insurance declined by 2.02% on profit-taking in mid-caps. Institutional flows remained strong, with Chapel Hill Denham executing ₦53.82 billion approximately 65% of weekly volume. We expect sentiment to stay positive in energy and industrial names.

17.945% 203017.95%2032
Sales (₦‘bn)87.798488.826
Marginal Rates %16.00%16.20%
FGN BondOpen (Yield)Close (Yield)Chg
WoW
%%(Bps)
Apr-2916.5515.9065
Feb-3116.5015.7575
May-3316.5515.7580
Jan-3516.3015.7060
Jun-5315.7015.6010
NTBBidAskEffective Yield
%%%
17-Sep-2616.0015.3017.90
03-Sep-2616.1015.4017.92
20-Aug-2616.2015.8018.97

In anticipation of the NTB Q4 auction calendar and with no key macro data due, the week is set to open on a muted note as focus turns to an expected ₦1.135tn inflows from NTB and OMO maturities, and the possibility for a mid week NTB auction.

Last week’s OMO auction, the first in weeks, suggests the CBN may continue with multiple issuances to mop up surplus liquidity. Bullish sentiment persists at current yield levels; however, additional OMO supply from here could temper further upside and prompt a near-term pullback.

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Fixed Income in Focus: The week opened quietly ahead of the October inflation print, with system liquidity surplus at c.₦1.3tn. Trading opened with mid-tenor bonds rallying after headline inflation fell to 16.08% (-197bps m/m), though profit-taking later in the week

Fixed Income in Focus: The week opened quietly ahead of the October inflation print, with system liquidity surplus at c.₦1.3tn. Trading opened with mid-tenor bonds rallying after headline inflation fell to 16.08% (-197bps m/m), though profit-taking later in the week