Weekly Market Report: October 6-10th, 2025

SpringHill Capital

October 13, 2025

The week opened with heavy activity across local fixed income: the CBN issued about ₦3.2tn in OMO bills across tenors, closing in a 21.16%–21.54% yield range, driven by reinvestment demand and supported by ample liquidity. Attention shifted mid-week to the NTB auction, where the DMO brought its largest 364-day supply in weeks; stops fell ~100bps versus the prior auction on aggressive long-end bids, with secondary levels holding into week-end around 18.17%. In the bond market, yields consolidated early (c. 15.75%–15.80%) before tilting slightly bearish into the close. Amidst robust market participation, system liquidity remained firm at a ₦3.38tn surplus.

The ASI advanced 2.37 % to close at 146,988.04, maintaining bullish momentum led by Industrials at 4.23 % and  Insurance at  3.69 %, while Banking declined by 0.41%. Overhang came from the ongoing capital gains tax debate and optimism from strong showings in MTN,SEPLAT and DANGOTE CEMENT. Financials with 60 % of trades, led in volume and we expect momentum to favor industrials.

 91 Days182 Days364 Days
Sales (₦‘bn)25.37441.327503.298
Stop Rates15.00%15.25%15.77%
FGN BondOpen (Yield)Close (Yield)Chg
WoW
%%(Bps)
Apr-2915.9016.00(10)
Feb-3115.7516.05(30)
Jun-3215.7515.85(10)
May-3315.7015.85(15)
Jun-5315.4015.20(20)
NTBBidAskEffective Yield
%%%
08-Oct-2615.5015.4018.17
17-Sep-2615.3015.5018.12
03-Sep-2615.4015.2017.59

The week opens with focus on the September CPI release, no auctions scheduled, and about ₦600bn in inflows from OMO maturities and coupons on FGN 2029s and FGNSK 2033s, adding to already positive system balances.

Dovish CPI sentiment could spur early-week buying across bills and bonds, while neutral sentiment may keep trade steady amid strong liquidity. A hawkish tone could prompt mild profit-taking toward the long end, but overall market direction will hinge on the prevailing inflation narrative.

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Fixed Income in Focus: The week opened quietly ahead of the October inflation print, with system liquidity surplus at c.₦1.3tn. Trading opened with mid-tenor bonds rallying after headline inflation fell to 16.08% (-197bps m/m), though profit-taking later in the week

Fixed Income in Focus: The week opened quietly ahead of the October inflation print, with system liquidity surplus at c.₦1.3tn. Trading opened with mid-tenor bonds rallying after headline inflation fell to 16.08% (-197bps m/m), though profit-taking later in the week