Weekly Market Report: July 11th, 2025

SpringHill Capital

July 14, 2025

The week opened positive with ₦275bn in system liquidity and a bullish tone. The CBN’s mid-week OMO auction saw ₦1.25tn sold at over 200bps below prior stop rates, followed by an NTB auction that also cleared sharply lower +200bps across tenors reinforcing a dovish shift in yield expectations. Demand spilled into the secondary market, with the new 364-day bill trading ~100bps lower. Bonds remained active, particularly the May 2033s and Feb 2031s, which attracted strong bids as yields compressed further. Liquidity closed the week tighter at a negative ₦118bn.

The All-Share Index continued its bull run to record a 2.57% gain this week. Strong buying interest prevailed though every sector with Banking, NSE30, and Oil & Gas indices leading the way registering 4.69%, 3.33%, and 2.45% respectively. Notably, trading volumes peaked for premium stocks on Thursday as investors rushed to grab value positions in MTNN, Access and GTCO. This likely solidifies a portfolio shift towards equities that should continue into another short trading week.

 91 Days182 Days364 Days
Sales (₦‘bn)59.8415.66126.30
Stop Rates15.74%16.20%16.30%
FGN BondOpen (Yield)Close (Yield)Chg
WoW
%%(Bps)
Apr-2917.0016.4060
Feb-3117.6216.6597
May-3317.5016.6090
Jan-3516.6016.60
Jun-5315.8015.90(10)
NTBBidAskEffective Yield
%%%
09-Jul-2615.4515.3018.03
19-Feb-2616.9016.4518.27
22-Jan-2616.8016.4017.95

The week opens on the back of a negative system liquidity balance, with no scheduled auctions and only modest support expected from a ₦64.8bn coupon inflow on the FGN July 2034s.

Attention turns to Tuesday’s June inflation print, where expectations of a continued disinflationary trend are reinforcing dovish sentiment. In the absence of fresh supply, trading is likely to remain cautious and data-driven, with curve positioning shaped by CPI outcomes and any liquidity signals from the CBN.

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Fixed Income in Focus: The fixed income market opened the week on a constructive note, with supportive flows across bonds, NTBs and OMO papers. Sentiment softened on Tuesday as bond yields backed up across the 2030s–2037s, while the NTB segment